The new Flybe has put its first set of routes on sale. There are 23 in all, with the first – Birmingham to Belfast City – taking off at 08:55 on April 13th. One-way base fares are available from £19.99.

16 airports to be served this summer

Flybe will serve 16 airports in the UK, France, and the Netherlands in its first round. That's a vast, complex, and ambitious network for a startup. Increasingly popular 'W' flights, such as Birmingham-Amsterdam-East Midlands-Amsterdam-Birmingham, will be necessary.

As Flybe will have crew and aircraft bases at Birmingham and Belfast City, they have well over half of the routes. Belfast City has 12, most in head-to-head competition with new entrant Emerald Airlines (Aer Lingus Regional) or with British Airways, Aer Lingus itself, KLM, and Loganair.

Belfast was especially badly hit by the end of Flybe. However, Emerald will open its Belfast City base this week with Birmingham its first route – the same as Flybe, just a few weeks apart. The two carriers will compete heavily from the Northern Ireland airport, including on high-frequency links to Manchester and Birmingham.

What are the 23 routes?

The following are bookable. Note: the given frequency typically isn't what is operated to begin with. Often it'll be what's offered later in the year. For example, Belfast-Birmingham starts at up to 2x daily.

1. Belfast City to Birmingham from April 13th; up to 4x daily later in the year
2. Belfast City to Glasgow from April 14th; up to 4x daily
3. Amsterdam to Birmingham from April 28th; 1x daily
4. Amsterdam to East Midlands from April 28th; 1x daily; no head-to-head competition
5. Belfast City to Leeds Bradford from April 28th; up to 3x daily
6. Belfast City to London Heathrow from April 28th; up to 2x daily
7. Leeds Bradford to London Heathrow from April 28th; up to 3x daily; no head-to-head competition
8. Amsterdam to Belfast City from May 28th; 1x daily
9. Amsterdam to London Heathrow from May 29th; up to 2x daily
10. Belfast City to Edinburgh from June 23rd; up to 3x daily
11. Belfast City to East Midlands from July 7th; up to 2x daily; no head-to-head competition
12. Belfast City to Manchester from July 7th; up to 4x daily
13. Birmingham to Avignon from July 9th; 1x weekly; no head-to-head competition
14. Birmingham to Brest from July 9th; 1x weekly; no head-to-head competition
15. Southampton to Avignon from July 23rd; 1x weekly; no head-to-head competition
16. Southampton to Toulon Hyères from July 24th; 1x weekly; no head-to-head competition
17. Belfast City to Southampton from July 28th; up to 2x daily
18. Birmingham to Edinburgh from July 28th; up to 4x daily
19. Birmingham to Glasgow from July 28th; up to 3x daily
20. Aberdeen to Birmingham from August 18th; 1x daily
21. Aberdeen to Belfast City from August 25th; up to 4x weekly
22. Belfast City to Inverness from August 25th; up to 4x weekly
23. Belfast City to Newcastle from August 25th; 1x daily; no head-to-head competition

Huge competition from the start

Some 15 of its 23 routes will have head-to-head competition. It's highly intriguing for a startup, with most understandably preferring to focus on unserved or underserved routes.

More significantly, these 15 will be its bread-and-butter higher-frequency services. Many of its unserved routes will be very thin (but hopefully high-yielding) summer-seasonal services to France.

Flybe has chosen routes with well-established brands and often many flights already. Heathrow to Amsterdam best illustrates this, with up to 21 daily flights this summer with BA and KLM.

How will Flybe compete? It seems peculiar and, in part, driven by possessing slots from Flybe 1.0 at the two airports. Future slot value might play a role.

But...

Not all the routes it'll compete on have many flights. For example, Belfast City to Glasgow has 1x daily with Emerald this summer (clearly insufficient for the big market) and Belfast-Edinburgh 2x daily (not timed for a day trip). However, it isn't easy to see how it'll compete in markets with many existing flights.

Note: For example, Belfast City to Birmingham will now up to 7x daily flights and up to 4x daily with easyJet from Belfast International. That's more than pre-pandemic, despite business travel lagging. Something will have to give.

Flybe is starting with a clean sheet and hopefully much better costs and platform than the defunct Flybe. Moreover, its seat-mile costs will be lower than niche operators, e.g., Loganair with lower-capacity aircraft and higher seat-mile costs.

All startup airlines need deep pockets, but it seems Flybe might need deeper pockets than most.