The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released new analysis showing that the damage to air travel from COVID-19 extends into the medium-term, with long-haul / international travel being the most severely impacted. Quarantine measures on arrival would further damage confidence in air travel. A risk-based layered approach of globally harmonized biosecurity measures is critical for the restart.

 

Air travel scenarios

IATA and Tourism Economics modeled two air travel scenarios.

 

Baseline Scenario:

• This is contingent on domestic markets opening in Q3, with a much slower phased opening of international markets. This would limit the air travel recovery, despite most forecasts pointing toward a strong economic rebound late this year and during 2021 • In 2021 IATA expects global passenger demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometers, RPKs) to be 24% below 2019 levels and 32% lower than IATA’s October 2019 Air Passenger forecast for 2021 • IATA doesn't expect 2019 levels to be exceeded until 2023 • As international markets open and economies recover, there will be further growth in air travel from the 2020 low point. But even by 2025 IATA would expect global RPKs to be 10% lower than the previous forecast

 

Pessimistic Scenario:

• This is based on a slower opening of economies and relaxation of travel restrictions, with lockdowns extending into Q3, possibly due to a second wave of the virus. This would further delay the recovery of air travel • In this case, global RPKs in 2021 could be 34% lower than 2019 levels and 41% below IATA's previous forecast for 2021

 

Long-Haul Travel Impact will be Longer Lasting

When the recovery begins, it is expected to be led by domestic travel:

• An IATA survey of recent air travelers conducted in April 2020 found that 58% are somewhat or very likely to restrict their initial travel to domestic journeys
• Domestic Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) will only recover to 2019 levels by 2022. International RPKs are only expected to return to 2019 levels in 2024

 

Avoid Quarantine Measures

IATA strongly urges governments to find alternatives to maintaining or introducing arrival quarantine measures as part of post-pandemic travel restrictions. IATA’s April survey of recent air travelers showed that:

• 86% of travelers were somewhat or very concerned about being quarantined while traveling, and
• 69% of recent travelers would not consider travelling if it involved a 14-day quarantine period

IATA’s proposal for a temporary risk-based layered approach to provide governments with the confidence to open their border without quarantining arrivals includes:

• Preventing travel by those who are symptomatic with temperature screening and other measures
• Addressing the risks of asymptomatic travelers with governments managing a robust system of health declarations and vigorous contact tracing

 

The mutual recognition of agreed measures is critical for the resumption of international travel. This is a key deliverable of the COVID-19 Aviation Recovery Task Force (CART) of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). For more information, please visit iata.org

 

 

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