The Travel & Tourism sector’s continued sluggish recovery will see its year-on-year contribution to global GDP rise by less than one third in 2021, according to new research from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).

WTTC, which represents the global Travel & Tourism private sector, says the recovery of the sector has been hampered by the lack of international coordination, severe travel restrictions and slower vaccination rates in some parts of the world which still hamper many regions of the world.

In 2019, the Travel & Tourism sector generated nearly USD 9.2 trillion to the global economy, however in 2020, the pandemic brought Travel & Tourism to an almost complete standstill which resulted in a 49.1% drop, representing a punishing loss of nearly USD$ 4.5 trillion.

While the global economy is set to receive a modest 30.7% year on year increase from Travel & Tourism in 2021, this will only represent USD 1.4 trillion and is mainly driven by domestic spending.  

The economic modelling was conducted by Oxford Economics on behalf of WTTC and calculated a baseline scenario based on the current global vaccination rollout, consumer confidence and relaxed travel restrictions in some in regions around the world. 

The research reveals that at the current rate of recovery, Travel & Tourism’s contribution to the global economy could see a similar moderate year on year rise of 31.7% in 2022.

Last year, WTTC revealed the loss of a staggering 62 million Travel & Tourism jobs around the world and with the current pace of recovery, jobs are set to rise by only 0.7% this year. 

Similarly, research shows a more hopeful potential year-on-year jobs rise across the sector next year, by a positive 18%. 

According to the research, the sector’s contribution to global GDP and the rise in jobs could be more positive this year and next, if the following measures are met: 

1. Allow fully vaccinated travellers to move freely, irrespective of their origin or eventual destination, removing complex tiered systems.
2. The implementation of digital solutions which enable all travellers to easily prove their COVID status, so in turn speeding up the process at borders around the world.
3. Recognition of all vaccines authorised by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and/or any of the Stringent Regulatory Authorities (SRA).
4. Agreement from all relevant authorities that international travel is safe with enhanced health and safety protocols.

The future could be brighter

The research shows that if these four vital rules are followed before the end of 2021, the impact on the global economy and jobs could be significant. 

According to the data, the sector’s contribution to the global economy could jump by 37.5% - reaching USD 6.4 trillion this year (compared to USD 4.7 trillion in 2020).

However, there is still hope if restrictions continue being lifted and with more international cooperation, governments could bring back nearly 19 million jobs before the year ends (up 6.8%).

The trend continues into next year when the sector’s contribution to the global economy could see a year on year rise of 34%, reaching USD 8.6 trillion, close to 2019, a record year for Travel & Tourism. Similarly, jobs could surpass 2019 levels - up 20.1% year on year, to more than 349 million.